A sideways look at economics
Today’s blog is something a little different – I’m sharing the video version of our latest special edition podcast episode on AI and US-China techno-economic competition. Last month I caught up with David Lin from the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) at the 2026 SCSP AI+ Expo in Washington DC. We’ve known each other for about four years now, since Fathom wrote a report for the SCSP about the future of AI and techno-economic competition between the US and China back in 2022. In this episode David and I discuss how the AI race between US and China has evolved over the past four years and assess how well our predictions from that report have fared.
When we wrote the report, we concluded that unless something changed, China’s catch-up to the US would end: its demographic dividend was over, and the country’s productivity growth was expected to slow as it approached the middle-income trap. The ‘something’ that could make the difference was technology, especially if it broke the link between demographics and economic growth. Our hypothesis was that China was likely to focus on AI to replace its dwindling labour force. Were we right? Well, China has gone from installing roughly the same number of robots as the US in 2011, to installing more than eight and a half times the number of US robots in 2024.
Watch the episode ‘Talking AI with David Lin’ to hear the whole discussion.
The episode explores themes from Welcome to the Machine, a ground-breaking 2022 report written by Fathom for the SCSP. This report analyses how US-China geostrategic competition could play out over the coming decades. It is based on a systematic study involving the latest findings from academia, the use of novel data techniques and the creation of a state-of-the-art techno-economic model.
For more analysis on China’s economy, US-China relations, global fragmentation and geopolitical risk, explore Fathom’s China Subscription Service and consultancy work. You can also listen to all the original episodes of our podcast, The Rise of China, for more conversations and insights from Fathom’s team.
Further reading