A sideways look at economics
Hurrying out of Old Street tube station yesterday morning I found myself face-to-face with Jeremy Corbyn – dressed as a Jedi Knight!
Although it’s perfectly plausible that the disruptive left-wing candidate might partake in a bit of mid-week fancy dress, greeting Londoners on their daily commute, it is in fact a vast mural.
Unmissable in size, it is a timely reminder of the anti-establishment’s growing popularity.
So too is the hashtag #Grime4Corbyn.
A reflection of the Labour candidate’s diverse fan base, big-name grime artists are vocalising their support for ‘Jez Jez’ through an onslaught of Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and Snapchat posts.
“This is real, and there’s a chance to make a change now, which is sick, if you don’t mind me saying.”
– JME, influential grime artist, in support of Jeremy Corbyn
Other artists have gone a step further, using TV as an outlet.
Appearing on Channel 4 News last weekend, award-winning music artist Rag’n’Bone man explained that Mr Corbyn’s ‘passion’ and relatability had motivated him to vote for the first time. He is not alone.
Reportedly, at one point, the use of #Grime4Corbyn exceeded that of #LabourManifesto on Twitter.
Mr Corbyn has even featured, albeit briefly, as a member of the UK grime collective, Boy Better Know, on Wikipedia.
Such publicity can only be a good thing in terms of galvanising youth turnout at the General Election.
While recent experience suggests that class is no longer a good predictor of voting behaviour, age remains a dividing line. Based on the latest YouGov/Times poll, Labour’s lead over the Conservatives in the 18-24 age category has more than doubled since 2015, from 16 to 37 percentage points. With the same poll showing the Tories’ overall lead narrowing to only five points, motivating that cohort to vote will be critical for the Labour campaign.
But will it be enough to swing the election? Probably not.
By our calculations, youth turnout would need to almost double, up from 43% in the last General Election to 82%, with all of those additional voters selecting Labour, in order to close the gap. Is this feasible? While grime is an increasingly popular genre, we remain Skepta-cal.
While the most likely outcome on 8 June remains a Conservative win, the forces driving the Labour leader’s polling ascent are worth keeping an eye on. Recent experience reminds us not to write off an underdog based on their polling figures, as they may end up trumping the pollsters, as our chart shows. Support for anti-establishment candidates, by its nature, may not be well-reflected in traditional polling methods. And while the comparison is imperfect, Corbyn’s path to the Labour leadership in 2015 demonstrates that a late surge in support is not impossible. Storm-zy seas ahead.