“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future”, Niels Bohr[1] The future is hard to predict and the sensible thing would simply be to live in the present. But even so I often cannot help but wish for an omniscient crystal ball. If I go left will I collide and spill coffee down my front? Are property prices going to be sufficiently low for a Lifetime ISA by the time I have saved a deposit? Or is the

At night, as I ponder the issues that concern me most, from climate breakdown to the substrate that will work best in my new fish tank, my thoughts are interrupted by the piercing silence of no crying baby. This, I believe, is the result of the sleep training routine I recently introduced for my eleven-month-old son, courtesy of my colleague Laura. Sleep training is a highly charged subject, as any parent who has considered or implemented it will know. And

There is a contagion spreading around London, infecting commuters from all walks of life. These gyrating duplet organisms vary in size, shape and colour and are replicating in variants of greater and greater wattage. Once contaminated, a symbiotic relationship is formed…  I am speaking of course about bicycles.   Transport for London (TfL)[1] estimates that 1.26 million two-wheeled trips were made every day in the capital in 2023, a 20% increase from 2019 and equivalent to a third of all

Healthy debate is strongly encouraged at Fathom. The house view on major economic, geopolitical and financial issues is not determined from the top down; rather, it is the reflection of hours of internal discussion, analysis and research, conducted by the team. A recent note on Chinese equity prices caused quite a stir internally and, as one of our colleagues pointed out, the debate surrounding the story would make for an interesting read. In this week’s TFiF, we provide that behind-the-scenes

Renowned economist, Alex Edmans, recently presented to Fathom on the topic of bias in data. One example cited a study that claimed breastfeeding leads to more intelligent babies. Delving further into the study, mothers with higher education and more supportive home environments were more likely to breastfeed, meaning that the correlation could be due to the mothers’ home environments rather than breastfeeding itself. That the underlying data is, first, correct and, second, analysed in a non-biased way, is crucial in

I recently read in the news that US presidential candidate Kamala Harris is flirting with the idea of introducing a ban on ‘corporate price gouging’, in relation to food suppliers and grocery stores. As an economist, and the proud son of a father who has worked in the food business for more than thirty years, I could not resist writing a few lines to convince you that this plan is undoubtedly a rather bad idea. So, without further hesitation, let’s

Owning and using a private jet has long been the status symbol of the elite in our society, from prominent celebrities to the most successful CEOs. Not many can deny that one of the primary reasons to fly a private jet is simply because they can. When I was asked to write a post for the famed Fathom blog, I gave a lot of thought to the topics that would best combine some of my interests. In the end, I

Given recent passionate debates by colleagues Erik and Elisabeth about economic models and ’rational man‘ — homo economicus — how could I pass up this opportunity, on Friday the 13th, to write about empirical economic evidence for superstitions? Friggatriskaidekaphobia, or the fear of Friday the 13th, has proved to be a persistent Western superstition, rooted in Christianity and Norse mythology.[1] Christians believe that Judas Iscariot, who betrayed Jesus Christ of Nazareth, was the 13th guest at the Last Supper, which

Coffee drinking is taking over the world. Even in the UK, the home of ‘afternoon tea’, coffee is now the most popular drink. That would make someone like me, who considers coffee an indulgence as much as a means to remain alert, happy. But I am not. Coffee can be served both in hot and cold variants, and in a world where temperatures are rising the latter are not pulling their weight. Far from it, new iced-coffee variants increasingly use

We've all hit that afternoon slump, when the clock seems to slow down and every task feels like a mountain. It's in these moments that the idea of taking a break starts to sound not just appealing but necessary. As work environments change, especially with remote working, finding the right balance in how we take breaks can help prevent these slumps, and it is key to maintaining our health and momentum. But how should we take breaks effectively? Our attitudes,