Forever blowing bubbles

6 January 2017|

A salary of £1 a second would be nice. A quid every second. One pound. Every second. Even while you sleep! Assuming that footballer Carlos Tevez gets a full eight hours every night, he will wake up nearly £30,000 richer each morning after he agreed to join Chinese club Shanghai Shenhua, where he will earn a salary of £1 per second. That's £3,600 per hour, or £615,000 per week, or £32 million per year. Whether he is scoring a cup-winning

One cheer for Christmas

23 December 2016|

"Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house Investors awaited the pre-Christmas bounce. Theory aside, the literature was clear, For those with investments 'tis the 'most wonderful time of the year'." Investors are well aware that much money can be made on stock markets in the pre-Christmas bounce. Indeed, there is now a wealth of academic research on the matter, which offers a conclusion about as close to unanimous as economists are ever likely to reach: "Equity markets

It’s just words

16 December 2016|

"A man is judged by his deeds not by his words" Russian proverb Despite a disparate set of statements on the campaign trail, there is remarkable consensus among market participants about what to expect from Donald Trump's presidency: Corporate tax cuts? Huge. Increased infrastructure spending? Tremendous. Burdensome regulation? Wrong. The much-maligned financial elite is now close to unanimous: US economic growth will accelerate, helping to lift domestic stock prices and the US dollar. The President-elect's words - and tweets -

Economic winter is not written in the stars

9 December 2016|

Betelgeuse is a red giant star sitting on the right shoulder of the hunter Orion, who rises on the southern horizon in winter in the northern hemisphere, announcing the arrival of bare branches, frost, plumes of breath in the night air: winter. On a clear night, its redness and its size are evident to the naked eye. Betelgeuse is approaching the end of its life cycle. It will explode into a supernova any day now (well, at some point probably

Would the real Donald Trump please stand up

2 December 2016|

To say that it has been hard to read the real intentions of President Elect Donald Trump since the election would be an understatement. Which is it to be: Trump Lite or Donald Dark? Below is an impression of how the Fathom view has evolved as the 'facts' (in our 'post-fact' world) have emerged. Fiscal stimulus is going to happen, the stock markets are up, the US dollar is stronger and US monetary policy is on the road to normalisation.

Pity the poor cork manufacturers

18 November 2016|

It is nigh on 200 years since David Ricardo first set out his theory of comparative advantage in his classic work 'On the principles of political economy and taxation'. Since that time it has been a unifying belief among economists that a country should channel its resources into producing only those goods and services in which it has a comparative advantage, exporting whatever it does not need around the world. But what are different countries good at? Revealed comparative advantage

There’ll be years like this

11 November 2016|

In September 2015, Jeremy Corbyn, a 500:1 outsider, won the leadership of the British Labour Party, Her Majesty’s Official Opposition. In May 2016, Leicester City FC won the English Premier League having been given odds of 5000:1 against at the start of the season. In June, the British referendum delivered a vote to leave the European Union, when the odds were 7:1 against at their longest. In October, the Colombian referendum on the proposed peace deal there delivered a ‘No’,

Super Mario: five levels completed, four tie colours collected

4 November 2016|

From his infamous “whatever it takes” speech back in July 2012 to being ‘attacked’ by a protester and doused in confetti back in April 2015, Mario Draghi’s tenure at the helm of the European Central Bank has been eventful to say the least. While his term does not expire until 2019, this week marked his fifth anniversary. Other policymakers aim to give nothing away in the run up to press conferences, but in the case of Mario Draghi, something entirely

UK business investment – ready for takeoff

28 October 2016|

As government ministers are fond of reminding us, the UK is set to be the fastest growing economy among the G7 in 2016. But there is another comparative statistic that is more damning. If we rank the G7 economies according to levels of non-housing investment as a share of GDP, the UK is bottom of the heap - a position it has occupied for the past 20 years. Those hoping for a government-led drive to raise the productive capacity of

When politics Trumps economics

13 October 2016|

Imagine a world in which Donald Trump is the President of the United States, and where he delivers much of what he has promised. The newly inaugurated President sets the ball rolling with a trade war, slapping import tariffs on Mexico and China. Foreign countries and US firms respond with lawsuits. Then a wall is built between Mexico and the US. Fearing the blocking of remittances, the neighbour to the south caves in and foots the bill. The US population