The year of the rooster or a big game of Chicken?

27 January 2017|

This weekend is the beginning of two-week long celebrations to mark Chinese New Year and with it the year of the rooster. According to Chinese astrology, the traits of a rooster include being talkative, outspoken, emotionally volatile and even a little narcissistic. Pointing to his inflammatory rhetoric and actions, some have likened these characteristics to US President Donald Trump! Worryingly, Mr Trump has demonstrated a continuity from his campaign days, with one of his more aggressive pledges involving a 45%

American exceptionalism

20 January 2017|

A charismatic leader confounds expert opinion, and is elected on a platform of taking on a rent-seeking establishment, foreign enemies and restoring the country to former glory. Public pressure is applied to private firms in order to influence investment decisions. Budget-busting fiscal stimulus is on the agenda even with high debt levels. Despite a sceptical elite, the self-styled "greatest jobs President God ever created" is taken seriously, if not literally. The scenario above may be new to the US, but

Coming of Age in Japan: escaping the fate that awaits

13 January 2017|

Every year, on the second Monday of January, Japan grinds to a halt in order to celebrate thousands of young men and women entering adulthood. Coming of Age Day honours those that have turned 20 - the legal age for consuming alcohol, smoking, gambling and even attending 'hostess bars'! Much has changed since the ritual, initiated by a young prince over a thousand years ago, began. Gone are the days of sword wielding and blackened teeth; the rite of passage

Forever blowing bubbles

6 January 2017|

A salary of £1 a second would be nice. A quid every second. One pound. Every second. Even while you sleep! Assuming that footballer Carlos Tevez gets a full eight hours every night, he will wake up nearly £30,000 richer each morning after he agreed to join Chinese club Shanghai Shenhua, where he will earn a salary of £1 per second. That's £3,600 per hour, or £615,000 per week, or £32 million per year. Whether he is scoring a cup-winning

One cheer for Christmas

23 December 2016|

"Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house Investors awaited the pre-Christmas bounce. Theory aside, the literature was clear, For those with investments 'tis the 'most wonderful time of the year'." Investors are well aware that much money can be made on stock markets in the pre-Christmas bounce. Indeed, there is now a wealth of academic research on the matter, which offers a conclusion about as close to unanimous as economists are ever likely to reach: "Equity markets

It’s just words

16 December 2016|

"A man is judged by his deeds not by his words" Russian proverb Despite a disparate set of statements on the campaign trail, there is remarkable consensus among market participants about what to expect from Donald Trump's presidency: Corporate tax cuts? Huge. Increased infrastructure spending? Tremendous. Burdensome regulation? Wrong. The much-maligned financial elite is now close to unanimous: US economic growth will accelerate, helping to lift domestic stock prices and the US dollar. The President-elect's words - and tweets -

Economic winter is not written in the stars

9 December 2016|

Betelgeuse is a red giant star sitting on the right shoulder of the hunter Orion, who rises on the southern horizon in winter in the northern hemisphere, announcing the arrival of bare branches, frost, plumes of breath in the night air: winter. On a clear night, its redness and its size are evident to the naked eye. Betelgeuse is approaching the end of its life cycle. It will explode into a supernova any day now (well, at some point probably

Would the real Donald Trump please stand up

2 December 2016|

To say that it has been hard to read the real intentions of President Elect Donald Trump since the election would be an understatement. Which is it to be: Trump Lite or Donald Dark? Below is an impression of how the Fathom view has evolved as the 'facts' (in our 'post-fact' world) have emerged. Fiscal stimulus is going to happen, the stock markets are up, the US dollar is stronger and US monetary policy is on the road to normalisation.

Pity the poor cork manufacturers

18 November 2016|

It is nigh on 200 years since David Ricardo first set out his theory of comparative advantage in his classic work 'On the principles of political economy and taxation'. Since that time it has been a unifying belief among economists that a country should channel its resources into producing only those goods and services in which it has a comparative advantage, exporting whatever it does not need around the world. But what are different countries good at? Revealed comparative advantage

There’ll be years like this

11 November 2016|

In September 2015, Jeremy Corbyn, a 500:1 outsider, won the leadership of the British Labour Party, Her Majesty’s Official Opposition. In May 2016, Leicester City FC won the English Premier League having been given odds of 5000:1 against at the start of the season. In June, the British referendum delivered a vote to leave the European Union, when the odds were 7:1 against at their longest. In October, the Colombian referendum on the proposed peace deal there delivered a ‘No’,