Thanks to the credibility of the Bank of England, consumer expectations do not jump around in the wake of shocks. The board at Leicester City FC should take note. One of the key questions for the UK outlook is: how far will the rise in inflation that is attributable to the weaker exchange rate become embedded in inflation expectations, influencing wage growth and potentially requiring tighter monetary policy? In our global model, UK inflation follows a short-run, expectations-augmented Phillips curve,

In spite of Fathom's previous note, interest in virtual currencies, of which Bitcoin remains the most prominent, is unabated. It's almost as though people aren't listening to us! But no, that cannot be. So what is going on - how to explain the continued demand for Bitcoin and the high value that it still commands? Bitcoin transactions are cheap, secure and opaque - difficult to monitor or trace. That makes it attractive to those who would prefer to keep the

It had to happen someday. After managing to keep its head down for a good few months, Greece is back in the spotlight. By last night's close the spread between Greek two-year yields and those of Germany had risen by more than 250 basis points since the beginning of the year. The trigger was the publication of the IMF's latest Article IV consultation with the indebted European nation, in which the world's lender of last resort argued that the burden

Since April last year, second homes and buy-to-let (BTL) properties have attracted an additional Stamp Duty and Land Tax (SDLT) levy of 3%, more than doubling the average effective rate previously charged. The intention of George Osborne, the then Chancellor, was to take some of the pressure out of the rapidly-growing BTL sector. Has the policy worked? In some respects, yes - data published this week show that the surcharge raised more than £1 billion for the public purse through

This weekend is the beginning of two-week long celebrations to mark Chinese New Year and with it the year of the rooster. According to Chinese astrology, the traits of a rooster include being talkative, outspoken, emotionally volatile and even a little narcissistic. Pointing to his inflammatory rhetoric and actions, some have likened these characteristics to US President Donald Trump! Worryingly, Mr Trump has demonstrated a continuity from his campaign days, with one of his more aggressive pledges involving a 45%

Every year, on the second Monday of January, Japan grinds to a halt in order to celebrate thousands of young men and women entering adulthood. Coming of Age Day honours those that have turned 20 - the legal age for consuming alcohol, smoking, gambling and even attending 'hostess bars'! Much has changed since the ritual, initiated by a young prince over a thousand years ago, began. Gone are the days of sword wielding and blackened teeth; the rite of passage

A salary of £1 a second would be nice. A quid every second. One pound. Every second. Even while you sleep! Assuming that footballer Carlos Tevez gets a full eight hours every night, he will wake up nearly £30,000 richer each morning after he agreed to join Chinese club Shanghai Shenhua, where he will earn a salary of £1 per second. That's £3,600 per hour, or £615,000 per week, or £32 million per year. Whether he is scoring a cup-winning

"Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house Investors awaited the pre-Christmas bounce. Theory aside, the literature was clear, For those with investments 'tis the 'most wonderful time of the year'." Investors are well aware that much money can be made on stock markets in the pre-Christmas bounce. Indeed, there is now a wealth of academic research on the matter, which offers a conclusion about as close to unanimous as economists are ever likely to reach: "Equity markets

"A man is judged by his deeds not by his words" Russian proverb Despite a disparate set of statements on the campaign trail, there is remarkable consensus among market participants about what to expect from Donald Trump's presidency: Corporate tax cuts? Huge. Increased infrastructure spending? Tremendous. Burdensome regulation? Wrong. The much-maligned financial elite is now close to unanimous: US economic growth will accelerate, helping to lift domestic stock prices and the US dollar. The President-elect's words - and tweets -