Everyone loves a surprise, right? Be that in the form of a rare win at the bookies, an unexpected Christmas present, a surprise party or even just a chance encounter with an old acquaintance. There are occasions, however, when surprises are bad. Do I want my car to break down? No. Do I want it to rain when I’ve left my umbrella at home? No. Do I want my forecasts to be wrong? No… As George Box once famously quipped,

Not that long ago, as I was doomscrolling through X (or Twitter as some still call it), I came across a post claiming that driving was ‘heavily subsidised’ to the tune of £1400–£3000 per driver per year. Wait? What? That’s huge! Can those numbers be correct? I decided to investigate… I started in the most obvious place — Google (other search providers are available). The brief summary at the top of the search results (thanks be to AI) said: “Yes,

Irish voters head for the polls today with housing the dominant issue. High prices are widely seen as a key factor driving disenchantment among young people. The festive season is beginning, so forgive my adding to that disenchantment with what I’m about to say. But decisions taken in foreign capitals and boardrooms may have far greater consequences for Ireland’s economic luck in the coming years than any domestic plebiscite. Why? Because Ireland’s low effective rate of corporate tax has made

What drives innovation? It’s almost a philosophical question with a variety of answers — far too many to dive into here. Some might say vision, experimentation, resilience, big companies with access to resources and talent, or even luck! I, for one, suggest productivity apps and ergonomic desk setups to help spark that innovative streak. However, to shed further light on this topic, I’ve chosen to take a look at one metric that could lead us towards a strictly financial value

Once upon a time there lived a poor widow and her son Jack. So begins the tale you might well have heard, about the peasant boy who turned thief and giant-murderer. Jack climbed a beanstalk into giant country and stole a sack of gold coins, a hen that laid golden eggs, and a magical harp. But while he and his now wealthy mother lived happily ever after, things were not so easily resolved at the top of the beanstalk... In

I have just returned from ten days in Gozo, an island off Malta, the supposed location of Calypso’s cave, in which Odysseus was imprisoned for seven long years on his journey home from Troy all that time ago. The island is small – you could drive the perimeter, if there were no traffic, in perhaps 45 minutes. There is no city, but a string of small towns and villages that have spread over time and now mostly run into one

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future”, Niels Bohr[1] The future is hard to predict and the sensible thing would simply be to live in the present. But even so I often cannot help but wish for an omniscient crystal ball. If I go left will I collide and spill coffee down my front? Are property prices going to be sufficiently low for a Lifetime ISA by the time I have saved a deposit? Or is the

At night, as I ponder the issues that concern me most, from climate breakdown to the substrate that will work best in my new fish tank, my thoughts are interrupted by the piercing silence of no crying baby. This, I believe, is the result of the sleep training routine I recently introduced for my eleven-month-old son, courtesy of my colleague Laura. Sleep training is a highly charged subject, as any parent who has considered or implemented it will know. And

There is a contagion spreading around London, infecting commuters from all walks of life. These gyrating duplet organisms vary in size, shape and colour and are replicating in variants of greater and greater wattage. Once contaminated, a symbiotic relationship is formed…  I am speaking of course about bicycles.   Transport for London (TfL)[1] estimates that 1.26 million two-wheeled trips were made every day in the capital in 2023, a 20% increase from 2019 and equivalent to a third of all

Healthy debate is strongly encouraged at Fathom. The house view on major economic, geopolitical and financial issues is not determined from the top down; rather, it is the reflection of hours of internal discussion, analysis and research, conducted by the team. A recent note on Chinese equity prices caused quite a stir internally and, as one of our colleagues pointed out, the debate surrounding the story would make for an interesting read. In this week’s TFiF, we provide that behind-the-scenes