Global Outlook Service

Our quarterly take on prospects and risks for the global economy

Economics. Markets. Geopolitics. Independent. Influential. Essential.

Our Global Outlook Service is our take on prospects and risks for the global economy, combining our intelligent, independent and data-driven assessment of macroeconomics, financial markets and geopolitics.

It includes forecasts for major economic variables, risk scenarios and clear asset allocation advice. The Global Outlook uses fan charts to highlight the distribution and skew of risks to our central expectation. All our Global Outlook Service clients are individually briefed every quarter by senior Fathom staff through personal presentations, in person or online, where the content is tailored to the client’s specific needs and interests.

Between these quarterly presentations, Global Outlook Service clients receive our original research notes and thought leadership pieces, and invitations to Fathom roundtables and events. They also have access to Fathom’s Chartbook, and our fan charts dashboard (see below).

As an optional extra, subscribers can enhance their annual service by adding ten days of consultancy time, for Fathom to undertake bespoke projects addressing specific questions or issues on their behalf. For more information about the Global Outlook Service, please get in touch.

Global Outlook

The Global Outlook Service includes:

Expert-led presentations, forecasts, risk scenarios and policy advice, tailored to your interests

Asset allocation: linking macroeconomics with investment strategy

Original, in-depth research: timely, trusted research notes and thought leadership pieces

Invitations to events: exclusive roundtables, conferences and events

Bespoke consultancy: subscribers can enhance their annual service by adding consultancy days

Want a free demonstration?

We offer prospective clients a free opportunity to hear insights from our latest Global Outlook.

Click here to request your demonstration.

Data, models and tools

Global Economic and Strategic Allocations Models (GESAM)

Fathom’s GESAM, used to construct our Global Outlook, are among only a handful of commercially available macroeconomic models in the world. The models cover more than 80% of global GDP and incorporate data that stretch back 150 years. They are grounded in theory and estimated empirically. They are supported by a suite of financial tools and can be used to do scenario analysis. Combined, they offer our clients an unmatched understanding of the near-term prospects for the global economy and asset markets.

The chart shows our forecasts for US GDP growth from our Global Outlook, Summer 2023, including a range of uncertainty.

Fathom’s Analogue Regime Model (FARM)

FARM is Fathom’s proprietary framework for guiding asset allocation through changing financial conditions. Instead of relying on simple phase labels or fixed rules, it draws on history to assess which past environments are most similar to today. This allows investment decisions to reflect how markets have actually behaved in comparable circumstances. By adapting dynamically as the macro backdrop evolves, FARM offers a disciplined and intuitive way to translate market signals into allocation views, grounded in evidence rather than assumption.

Global Outlook Fan Charts dashboard

Our Fan Charts dashboard, also found in the Client Zone, is where clients can view the mean forecasts from our latest Global Outlook, along with the uncertainty that surrounds those predictions. In this easy-to-use dashboard, clients can analyse data while switching between variables and viewing details of the quarter’s scenarios.

Insights

Browse our latest Outlook notes below.
For more of our other research notes and thought leadership pieces, please visit our Insights page.

Meet the team

Erik is responsible for designing and implementing the company’s strategy. This means guiding its macro research, and winning and leading major projects in macro, finance and political analysis, and ensuring those projects are completed to the highest possible standard. Early in his career, he worked at the Bank of England where he ran the Bank’s UK macroeconomic model and coordinated its international forecast.

Andrew started his career at the Bank of England and joined Fathom over 20 years ago. Since then he has carried out research and consultancy relating to a wide range of issues confronting the global economy and its financial markets. He developed and continues to maintain Fathom’s proprietary FIRM-DB model, which is used when advising local authorities on their defined-benefit pension schemes.

Brian oversees Fathom’s economic forecasting and scenario-building services. He has extensive experience working with clients from the public and private sectors and running large consultancy projects to ensure delivery of world-class products and services. Brian also leads Fathom’s energy and climate-related work, and has substantial expertise in building and managing large datasets, models and tools.

Elisabeth joined Fathom in December 2023 and currently manages Fathom’s China Subscription Service, producing regular research pieces on China’s economy and in-depth reports on China-related topics such as the ongoing economic rivalry between China and the US, leading the production of quarterly China outlooks, and providing clients with on-call China analysis. She has also worked on several bespoke consultancy projects and contributed to several of Fathom proprietary indicators and tools.

Dimos specialises in quantitative market research across equities and global asset classes, with a focus on econometric modelling, regime analysis and cross-asset allocation. He manages the development of Fathom’s dynamic investment barometer, FARM, which identifies macro-financial regimes in real time by matching current conditions with close historical analogues, generating forward-looking expectations for asset returns. His work has appeared in peer-reviewed finance and accounting journals.

Laura Eaton Chief Operating Officer Fathom Consulting

Laura is responsible for coordinating all work undertaken by the team of economists and data scientists, as well as for winning and leading major consultancy projects with clients in financial services, industry and government. She has managed the construction of multiple Fathom tools used to assess China in a global context and its domestic outlook. These include Fathom’s Capital Flows Tracker, RiCArdo dataset and China Momentum Indicator (CMI).

Get in touch

For more information about our Global Outlook Service or to discuss your needs and how we can help, please fill out the form below.

Global Outlook enquiry

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