Why the economic fundamentals still apply

31 July 2026|Tags: , , |

John Maynard Keynes’ acerbic remark that “…in the long run, we’re all dead” resonates because it is true, [1] and because it rightly draws attention to the here and now rather than some uncertain and distant possible future. But it has encouraged some commentators to dismiss long-term considerations as altogether irrelevant. I’m ready to bet Keynes never intended that. Political cycles in democracies practically insist on ignoring the long-term: if a policy is net costly in the short term it will

GDP: one size does not fit all

10 July 2026|Tags: , |

When I was at university we dealt very little with Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. Our courses focused instead on its theoretical counterpart, Y (economic shorthand for output or income). Y is a solid foundational bedrock; GDP is not. Rather, it’s a number that changes based on how you measure it; which is regularly revised (to my annoyance when I was forecasting Swedish GDP for the Norges Bank); and which is often used by commentators to capture far more than