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Measuring monthly GDP: is it worth it?

25 April 2025|

According to data published earlier this month, the UK economy expanded by 0.5% in the month of February. That’s an impressive figure, particularly when you annualise it, as our friends across the pond tend to do. Annualising turns 0.5% into 6.2%! February’s growth estimate was much stronger than expected, beating the Reuters Poll consensus by 0.4 percentage points, in month-on-month terms, and that is what grabbed the headlines. But should it have done? How accurate are initial estimates of monthly UK GDP growth? Well, there’s good news and bad news.

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