There is a lot more to publishing economic research than there might seem: coming up with ideas, collecting the data, interpreting those data, looking for interesting angles, poking holes in your own arguments, and having (ahem) ‘helpful’ colleagues do the same. Oh yes, throughout the process, we debate things among the team. When we put together our quarterly forecasts those discussions can last for hours, and get quite animated. Today, to give the outside world a flavour of such discussions,

As a more senior Fathom employee, I’m about to hang up my mouse and keyboard for what really is the last time. On the other hand, perhaps I should never say never. You see, this is my second shot at retiring. I eagerly jumped off the conveyor belt of work at the age of 60 after a long career in financial services, only to jump back on again two years later when I started work with Fathom. My partner was

Today, 10 September 2021, marks 20 years since one of the great scandals of British television began to unfold. Charles Ingram, a former British army major, was a contestant in the hot seat of the quiz show ‘Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?’. At the end of the first day’s filming the major's chances did not look particularly promising, as he had already used two of his lifelines on early questions. But by the time cameras stopped rolling on 10

As we finalise our latest Global Economic and Markets Outlook, I have been thinking a lot about how other people make their own economic forecasts: it turns out we cannot make ours without taking a view on that. Read on to find out why! The expectations of firms, households and investors are central to the macroeconomic models used by central banks, and by others in the business of making economic forecasts. The New-Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is a case in

As a boy I remember arguing with my sister about how to divide up cakes, pies and similar comestibles. The fairest approach we came up with was: “You cut, I choose”. But that approach is problematic because no cut is perfect. One slice of the pie is always fractionally larger. I preferred, and often insisted on, being the chooser rather than the cutter. My reasoning was: if anyone is going to get more than their fair share, it’s me. I

Given my track record for candour on this blog, let me admit to one slightly odd pleasure: agony columns. I have no statistics on this, but given their prevalence, I cannot be alone. Not that I care, frankly. My fascination started as a teenager eagerly scoffing the most salacious tales on the back pages of dubious glossy magazines at barber shops, but grew into a slightly more wholesome pastime rummaging through my wife’s holiday readings when half bored lying on

This perhaps isn’t the ideal week for a rant about the difficulties of foreign travel. The IPCC released its latest thinking, suggesting a 1.5°C warming in global temperatures within 20 years is almost inevitable — no matter what humans burn or don’t burn next. Turn on your TV and you’re likely to be greeted by video of raging fires in Algeria, Greece or Italy. Many would say that this isn’t the right year either. The coronavirus pandemic continues to bring

“On victory, you deserve beer, in defeat, you need it” Napoleon Bonaparte If I gave you £100, how much of it would you spend on beer? The answer you give is your marginal propensity to consume beer (MPCB). If you say “all of it”, your MPCB is 1. If you say “none of it”, your MPCB is 0. It’s that simple. Despite what some might say, previous work for this Friday blog uncovered some evidence that the MPCB is positive

In my eleven years in the UK, every hot, sunny spell has increased my appreciation of the links between the weather and human behaviour. On these days: supermarkets will sell out of disposable barbecues before I manage to get hold of one; a surprisingly large proportion of men will remove their shirts and turn a painful red as the day progresses; ice cream vans will be nowhere to be found; usually calm drivers will be doing their best to boost