Never have we agonised over a forecast as much as our latest one, which was produced in the midst of COVID-19. And yet, like most other economic forecasters, where we came out was a collection of letters to describe the likely shape — an alphabet soup of V, U, or L-type scenarios. In a world of exceptionally high uncertainty and variation, this elementary take was the best place to begin. Underlying our scenarios were days of debate concerning the resilience

Last weekend, I was reflecting on some of the positives from this lockdown as I sat in the garden soaking up the early summer sun and reading the Saturday paper. The twice-daily meals sitting all together at the table had created a particularly pleasant atmosphere of bonding through a mix of exchange of ideas and jokes. In my son, the forced respite from the busy pre-lockdown routine morphed from the initial slight anxiety about the future into a spur of

With many favourite pastimes falling victim to COVID-19, there had to be some winners emerging from the dust. Peloton, Netflix and Zoom are among those that have seen their share price rocket during lockdown, as people search for alternative leisure activities. Another serious winner has to be quizzing: virtual quizzes are gripping the nation. They bring friends and family together, and the only consequence from a wrong answer is your reputation. However, what if money were on the line? Would

Cities across the US have faced days of protests following the death of George Floyd after a distressing video of a Minneapolis officer kneeling on his neck for eight minutes and 46 seconds was released. It was the latest example of an unarmed black man being killed by a law enforcement officer. The #BlackLivesMatter movement was sparked by outrage at police brutality, but it speaks to a broader set of injustices faced by African-Americans, including inequalities in economic outcomes and

Intelligence tests are wrong. Let me count the ways. They are morally wrong because they result in people being placed in categories and treated differently because of that. This categorisation is a lazy shortcut that assumes there is some degree of stickiness about which category you belong to — it’s easy to put people in boxes and forget that they are people. Easy, but wrong, every time. They are intellectually wrong because they assume that intelligence can be mapped on

“The single biggest threat to man’s continued dominance on the planet is the virus.” Joshua Lederberg, Nobel laureate (1988) As COVID-19 infects virtually all aspects of our lives, it is clear the world was (and still is) severely underprepared to deal with the threat of pandemics. With human history plagued by similar catastrophic outbreaks, the coronavirus pandemic was far from unprecedented. Nor was it unpredictable. As the quotes illustrate, over the last 40 years there have been more warnings than

After a two-month pause, Germany’s premier football competition, the Bundesliga, resumes this weekend. With football matches suspended in every country in the world over the last few months (except footballing powerhouses Nicaragua and Belarus) fans like me have been starved of games, which is why all eyes are on Germany this weekend. Fathom’s TFiF editorial board had requested that we reduce the number of football-related posts, but I’m hoping that since there hasn’t been one for a while and in

Interest in the monetary statistics is something that comes and goes. For most economists, it’s something that has now largely gone. Their heyday to date, during my time at least, came in the 1980s. In April 1980, UK chancellor Geoffrey Howe launched a ‘Medium-Term Financial Strategy’ (MTFS), which included target ranges for the rate of growth of the money supply. The objective of monetary policy at the time was to meet those targets, and so began what has become known

It’s not often that I’m disappointed by the OED. When I am, it’s usually because the dictionary has denied me a higher Countdown score. Today, I’m disappointed by it for another reason. In April, the OED published a revised edition, adding a number of new words related to the ongoing health crisis. Covid-19, R0 and infodemic are all now in. But, much to my annoyance, the verbs to teams and to zoom haven’t been included. Clearly, they haven’t spent much

“Flick, flick, claw, claw, holding spoons, da, da, da-da-da” were the instructions shouted through the ether by the remote dance teacher on Instagram Live last Saturday. Bearing in mind that I haven’t voluntarily taken a dance class since junior school, it was surprisingly enjoyable. To this day, when the song ‘You’re the one that I want’ comes on the radio, I feel like donning my ‘Pink Ladies’ jacket, collar up, and recreating my junior school dance moves. I have no