Listening to recent central bank speeches, one can't help but get a sense of summer cheer. Risks to the global economy, which had been skewed to the downside, now appear broadly balanced. The shift in the macroeconomic outlook has been so great that policy normalisation is on the horizon, not just in the US but elsewhere. That's a good thing, right? Judging from the reaction in equity markets, maybe not. If the punchbowl is taken away, what appears on the
June has been a busy month for politics in Europe. Fresh from his victory in May's presidential elections, Emmanuel Macron won a landslide majority in parliament for his La République En Marche! (REM - an interesting acronym for a political party: that's them in the spotlight, winning their election...). On this side of the Channel, Theresa May lost twelve seats, failing to secure a majority for her party. At the time of writing, the Conservative Party is scrambling to reach
In the great 1957 film "Twelve angry men" (from the play of the same name written by Reginald Rose), Henry Fonda stars as the lone hold-out in a jury of twelve, unpersuaded by the evidence against the defendant in the murder case they are hearing. For the remainder of the film, he gradually cajoles and persuades the other eleven jurors to agree with him and acquit the defendant. The other jurors are keen to get back to their normal lives,
The second team at a village cricket club recently reached a score of 201/2 after 28 overs in a 45 over match – a commanding position, looking to push on to 350 or even 400 from there. They finally reached 206 all out, and lost the match. This club, unfortunately, has experienced collapses like that many times. They are part of the club’s folklore. Conservative Party folklore revolves around a self-perception as a disciplined, highly efficient election-winning machine. It has
I'm only happy when it rains I'm only happy when it's complicated And though I know you can't appreciate it I'm only happy when it rains You know I love it when the news is bad And when it feels so good to feel so sad I'm only happy when it rains Garbage, Only Happy When It Rains Fathom's annual summer party is approaching. This is a function aimed at clients, friends and family. Our hope and expectation is that
Hurrying out of Old Street tube station yesterday morning I found myself face-to-face with Jeremy Corbyn - dressed as a Jedi Knight! Although it's perfectly plausible that the disruptive left-wing candidate might partake in a bit of mid-week fancy dress, greeting Londoners on their daily commute, it is in fact a vast mural. Unmissable in size, it is a timely reminder of the anti-establishment's growing popularity. So too is the hashtag #Grime4Corbyn. A reflection of the Labour candidate's diverse fan
Undoubtedly, being responsible for the monetary policy of a common currency bloc of more than a dozen different countries can be a thankless task at times. Mario Draghi could certainly tell us a thing or two about it - shoehorning every member state into a one-size-fits-all monetary policy is uncomfortable all round and leads to criticism of the shoemaker, in this analogy Mr Draghi. Arguably, Mr Draghi's biggest critics inside the union come from Germany. Adding to Wolfgang Schäuble's regular
Once the week's work is complete, Fathom staff, on occasion, are permitted to help themselves to a light ale from the company fridge. But what if they were to indulge in something stronger? Smoke a little cannabis perhaps? Such an idea is unlikely to pass muster with management, not least because the substance is banned in the UK! But in other parts of the world such behaviour would not be as far out as it sounds: several US states have
Every four years US presidential candidates debate the relative merits of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) - a trilateral trade bloc between Canada, Mexico and the US. With an eye on key swing states, they usually conclude that domestic job losses can be pinned on multinationals exporting production south of the border, and that the US has been on the losing end of the deal. The main point of contention is whether NAFTA is simply bad or the
Let's face it, 2016 was not a good year for political pollsters. The breakthrough year for nationalism was met with shock results for both Donald Trump becoming the President of the United States and the UK's decision to leave the EU, with polls underestimating the respective likelihoods of such events. However, the results of the first round of elections in France suggest Europe's second largest economy will stay on the internationalist side of the line. Centrist Emmanuel Macron won the