Earlier this month, I arrived in Washington DC to set up Fathom’s US office. I finished high school in the city so it hasn’t been a huge culture shock. However, having lived in the UK for most of the past decade, there are some differences that have immediately caught my eye. Yes, the weather is better. (Hard to imagine the opposite?) And the food portions are bigger. But it’s more than just that. The Good Innovation: Americans are generally more
The Matrix movies popularised the idea that normality and reality may be subjective concepts that cannot be pinned down with any degree of accuracy across time or space. The perception of reality continually evolves based on our individual and collective experiences and sensory rationalisations. Eyes, in particular, hold a prominent role in this process just like sunglasses did in the movie. I must have been about the same age as my son (nine) when I had my own Matrix moment
Ever since I was a young child looking through my atlas, I’ve been fascinated by the different countries of the world, their capital cities, the size of their populations, and the different commodities they produce. I vaguely recollect the US population being around 220 million in those far-flung days, which gives readers a clue to my age! I am eternally grateful to my parents for taking me on foreign holidays which piqued my interest in other countries and cultures, although
There is a lot more to publishing economic research than there might seem: coming up with ideas, collecting the data, interpreting those data, looking for interesting angles, poking holes in your own arguments, and having (ahem) ‘helpful’ colleagues do the same. Oh yes, throughout the process, we debate things among the team. When we put together our quarterly forecasts those discussions can last for hours, and get quite animated. Today, to give the outside world a flavour of such discussions,
As a more senior Fathom employee, I’m about to hang up my mouse and keyboard for what really is the last time. On the other hand, perhaps I should never say never. You see, this is my second shot at retiring. I eagerly jumped off the conveyor belt of work at the age of 60 after a long career in financial services, only to jump back on again two years later when I started work with Fathom. My partner was
Trying to understand the world can often feel like you're trying to put together a jigsaw puzzle but can only see two of the pieces at the same time. You stare at those two pieces alongside each other. If you think that they fit together then you put them to the side. If you don’t then you try again. The whole thing takes a long time and at the end of it all, you still only have a bunch of
Today, 10 September 2021, marks 20 years since one of the great scandals of British television began to unfold. Charles Ingram, a former British army major, was a contestant in the hot seat of the quiz show ‘Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?’. At the end of the first day’s filming the major's chances did not look particularly promising, as he had already used two of his lifelines on early questions. But by the time cameras stopped rolling on 10
As we finalise our latest Global Economic and Markets Outlook, I have been thinking a lot about how other people make their own economic forecasts: it turns out we cannot make ours without taking a view on that. Read on to find out why! The expectations of firms, households and investors are central to the macroeconomic models used by central banks, and by others in the business of making economic forecasts. The New-Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is a case in
As a boy I remember arguing with my sister about how to divide up cakes, pies and similar comestibles. The fairest approach we came up with was: “You cut, I choose”. But that approach is problematic because no cut is perfect. One slice of the pie is always fractionally larger. I preferred, and often insisted on, being the chooser rather than the cutter. My reasoning was: if anyone is going to get more than their fair share, it’s me. I
Given my track record for candour on this blog, let me admit to one slightly odd pleasure: agony columns. I have no statistics on this, but given their prevalence, I cannot be alone. Not that I care, frankly. My fascination started as a teenager eagerly scoffing the most salacious tales on the back pages of dubious glossy magazines at barber shops, but grew into a slightly more wholesome pastime rummaging through my wife’s holiday readings when half bored lying on